How Many New Inquiries Should a Practice Plan For in January?

A practice should plan for January inquiries using its own records, because no reliable industry multiplier exists. Divide each past January’s inquiries by the monthly average from the September to November before it. Average those ratios across two or three years, then apply the result to this fall’s numbers. Finally, convert expected inquiries into booked first appointments and weekly slots.

Why is there no standard number for January inquiries?

There is no standard number for January inquiries because demand shifts from year to year and every practice’s mix is different. The American Psychiatric Association reported in January 2026 that 38% of Americans planned a mental health New Year’s resolution, up from 33% a year earlier. National intent moved five points in a single year, which is reason enough to treat last year’s January count as a starting point.

Local factors move the number further. Specialty, payer panels, age of clients, marketing spend and even a new competitor down the road all change how January lands. APA CEO and Medical Director Marketa M. Wills, M.D., M.B.A., noted in November 2024 that “mental health is often tested over the winter holidays,” but how much of that shows up at any one practice’s door can only be read from that practice’s own history.

What data does a practice need to size January?

A practice needs a monthly count of new inquiries for at least the last two Januaries and the September to November periods before them. An inquiry means one unique person asking about services, whether by phone, web form, email or text. Duplicates from the same person count once.

Phone calls are the easiest to undercount, so pull them from every source available. Google’s Business Profile performance report, for example, shows “the number of times a customer clicked on the call button” for any date range the practice sets. Keep booked first appointments in a separate column for the same months. Sorting inquiries by fit, as described in What Is a Qualified Lead in Behavioral Health?, makes the forecast more useful.

How do you calculate expected January inquiries?

To calculate expected January inquiries, find each year’s ratio of January to the prior fall, average the ratios, and multiply by this fall’s monthly average. The table below is an illustrative example with made-up numbers.

In this example the average ratio is 1.37. If this fall averages 64 inquiries a month, January planning should assume about 88. If last January booked 45% of inquiries, that is about 40 first appointments, or nine to ten a week. Run it in October with the months available, then again in early December with full November data.

What does this answer not cover?

This answer gives a method for forecasting a single practice’s January inquiries from that practice’s own records. It does not publish an industry-wide January multiplier, and the example numbers are illustrative only. A forecast is an estimate, and actual January volume can land above or below it.

The method works poorly for practices less than two years old, practices that added or lost several clinicians in the past year, or practices that changed marketing spend sharply between fall and January. In those cases, treat the result as a floor, compare it with the most recent months of inquiry data, and watch weekly counts closely in early January. It also does not cover how to staff, schedule or follow up on the volume once it arrives.

Frequently asked questions

What if a practice only has one January of data?

One January still gives a usable starting ratio, but treat it as rough. Compare it against any other signal available, such as last December’s call volume or website form submissions. Plan staffing for the high end of a reasonable range, then adjust in early January as actual weekly inquiry counts come in.

Should the forecast count inquiries or booked appointments?

The forecast should count both, in separate columns. Inquiries show how much demand reaches the practice. Booked first appointments show how much of that demand the practice absorbed. A January where inquiries rose and bookings stayed flat points to a capacity or follow-up problem inside the practice.

For turning the forecast into a staffing and scheduling plan, read How Should a Practice Prepare for the January Intake Spike?